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Do Warmer sea make strong Hurricanes by Mr. Tiger …

22/01/2015 · The project is about is do warmer seas make stronger hurricanes ..

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So Curry and her colleagues examined existing data on a range of climate variables, correlating changes in these factors with trends in the occurrence of higher-category hurricanes.Globally, only sea surface temperature increased in line with super-strong hurricanes, Curry's team reports in Science.The fact that warmer seas make for harsher storms may not come as a surprise.

Do warmer oceans make stronger hurricanes?

Hurricanes are more likely to form when sea surface temperatures are higher. Higher sea surface temperatures can make a hurricane larger or stronger. Hurricanes will last longer if there is more, higher, hurricane-hot sea to travel over. If sea surface temperatures are high enough to cause hurricanes earlier in the year or later in the year, the hurricane season can be longer. Possibly, storms that in a non-warmed world would not have made it to “named storm” status are moved to that level of strength and organization because of the elevated sea surface temperature.

Do warmer seas make stronger hurricanes

Do warmer waters make stronger hurricans? - …

Sea surface temperature increases of small amounts cause large changes in hurricanes, and large changes in hurricanes cause larger changes in potential damage level. The increase in Atlantic sea surface temperatures over recent decades have probably been sufficient, according to my thumb-suck estimate that I strongly suspect is close to correct, to make about half the hurricanes that would have existed anyway jump up one category. Then, when hurricanes get stronger, the amount of damage they can do goes up exponentially. So the sea surface temperature increases we’ve see with global warming easily explain the fact that we’ve had more hurricanes overall, and stronger ones, over the last twenty or thirty years than during the previous years back to when the data are still pretty good.

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Do Warmer sea make strong Hurricanes

Do warmer oceans make stronger hurricanes

BIG question Do warmer seas make stronger hurricanes

Judith Curry: OK. From a statistical point of view, yes, but you can't make the statement about every single storm. Some storms will go over warm water and they won't intensify and this may be for a variety of reasons. It may be because of wind shear, and maybe some dry air moving in at higher levels, that's sort of shutting down the convection. So there's a number of reasons where you can go over warm water and not have a hurricane intensify. So it doesn't hold for every individual storm, but it holds statistically.

Brian Stempeck: Let's go back to your study a little bit. You mentioned that this is basically a hypothesis saying that the warmer seas could be causing the stronger hurricanes. But at same time I saw interviews with some of the report authors, including yourself, where people say that we're not making a direct correlation here. We're not saying that this is definitely the case.

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    Warmer sea make strong Hurricanes

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Increase in Major Hurricanes Linked to Warmer Seas;

Judith Curry: OK. He's basing that on climate model projections, simulations. Now climate, these are the same people who say there is no greenhouse warming, but then they're believing one particular prediction of a climate model. The climate models do a good job at predicting sea surface temperature. They don't do a great job at predicting precipitation or hurricane intensity. So that conclusion is less robust. I mean look at even the weather forecast of hurricanes. They can do a good job on the track. They do not do the job on intensity. There are some very complex things going on in intensity that we don't do very well with the models. So using a climate model projection to disprove our data set doesn't quite make sense. We should be using our data to test the models, not the models to discredit our data.

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