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The Volcanic Development and Petroleum System …

Uncertainty And Risk Analysis In Petroleum Exploration And Download Uncertainty And Risk Analysis In Petroleum ..

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Geological risk and uncertainty in oil exploration

There is no reason to believe that petroleum geoscientists are any less prone to common cognitive limitation in their assessment of the uncertain and complex factors underlying the required assessments in prospect evaluation.

Petroleum exploration ventures always require decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

In addition, the number of uncertainties in the data utilized in decision making to invest in petroleum projects is very high, and therefore strongly affects the decision making processes.

[I Lerche] -- Oil exploration is a high-risk game

Our brains are too limited.”-Amitai Etzioni (1989)Petroleum exploration ventures always require decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

The developed EcoPetro_Model represents a deterministic model to evaluate the economics of petroleum projects before the project starts and to reevaluation of petroleum projects after successful exploration prior to development or production phase.

We demonstrate that the tendency of being overconfident in our assessment of uncertainty has significant impact on the exploration decision and prospect evaluation.

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