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How to Determine a p-Value When Testing a Null Hypothesis

If your personal fixed level is greater than or equal to the P value, you would reject the null hypothesis.

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How to Determine a p-Value When Testing a Null Hypothesis

One of the main goals of statistical hypothesis testing is to estimate the P value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed results, or something more extreme, if the null hypothesis were true. If the observed results are unlikely under the null hypothesis, your reject the null hypothesis. Alternatives to this "frequentist" approach to statistics include Bayesian statistics and estimation of effect sizes and confidence intervals.

A small P value means that data as extreme as these are unlikely under the null hypothesis.

When you reject a null hypothesis, there's a chance that you're making a mistake. The null hypothesis might really be true, and it may be that your experimental results deviate from the null hypothesis purely as a result of chance. In a sample of 48 chickens, it's possible to get 17 male chickens purely by chance; it's even possible (although extremely unlikely) to get 0 male and 48 female chickens purely by chance, even though the true proportion is 50% males. This is why we never say we "prove" something in science; there's always a chance, however miniscule, that our data are fooling us and deviate from the null hypothesis purely due to chance. When your data fool you into rejecting the null hypothesis even though it's true, it's called a "false positive," or a "Type I error." So another way of defining the P value is the probability of getting a false positive like the one you've observed, if the null hypothesis is true.

the null hypothesis is true, ..

If your personal fixed level is less than to the P value, you would fail to reject the null hypothesis.

where the observed sample mean difference, μ0 = value specified in null hypothesis, sd = standard deviation of the differences in the sample measurements and n = sample size. For instance, if we wanted to test for a difference in mean SAT Math and mean SAT Verbal scores, we would random sample subjects, record their SATM and SATV scores in two separate columns, then create a third column that contained the differences between these scores. Then the sample mean and sample standard deviation would be those that were calculated on this column of differences.

In general, a p-value is the probability that the test statistic would "lean" as much (or more) toward the alternative hypothesis as it does if the real truth is the null hypothesis.

than this given the null hypothesis is called a P-value.

A small P value makes us reject the null hypothesis because an event has occurred that is unlikely ifH0 were true.

In the second experiment, you are going to put human volunteers with high blood pressure on a strict low-salt diet and see how much their blood pressure goes down. Everyone will be confined to a hospital for a month and fed either a normal diet, or the same foods with half as much salt. For this experiment, you wouldn't be very interested in the P value, as based on prior research in animals and humans, you are already quite certain that reducing salt intake will lower blood pressure; you're pretty sure that the null hypothesis that "Salt intake has no effect on blood pressure" is false. Instead, you are very interested to know how much the blood pressure goes down. Reducing salt intake in half is a big deal, and if it only reduces blood pressure by 1 mm Hg, the tiny gain in life expectancy wouldn't be worth a lifetime of bland food and obsessive label-reading. If it reduces blood pressure by 20 mm with a confidence interval of ±5 mm, it might be worth it. So you should estimate the effect size (the difference in blood pressure between the diets) and the confidence interval on the difference.

A Bayesian would insist that you put in numbers just how likely you think the null hypothesis and various values of the alternative hypothesis are, before you do the experiment, and I'm not sure how that is supposed to work in practice for most experimental biology. But the general concept is a valuable one: as Carl Sagan summarized it, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

A P value is the probability of observing data as or more extreme as the actual outcome when the null hypothesis is true.
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  • Reject the null hypothesis if p-value ..

    inferring that the null or alternative hypothesis is true or false on the basis of a single sample may be misleading.

  • The null hypothesis is never true!

    e The null hypothesis is not rejected when the null hypothesis is true 10 Null Penn State

  • home message—when the null is true, the p-value is a random ..

    the null hypothesis is true

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that your outcome occurs if the null hypothesis is true ..

The probability that was calculated above, 0.030, is the probability of getting 17 or fewer males out of 48. It would be significant, using the conventional PP=0.03 value found by adding the probabilities of getting 17 or fewer males. This is called a one-tailed probability, because you are adding the probabilities in only one tail of the distribution shown in the figure. However, if your null hypothesis is "The proportion of males is 0.5", then your alternative hypothesis is "The proportion of males is different from 0.5." In that case, you should add the probability of getting 17 or fewer females to the probability of getting 17 or fewer males. This is called a two-tailed probability. If you do that with the chicken result, you get P=0.06, which is not quite significant.

support the alternative hypothesis II) the null hypothesis is true ..

The P value for testing the null hypothesis that the coin is fair (equally likely to come up heads or tails) versus the alternative that is it unfair is 0.0035.

Null and Alternative Hypothesis | Real Statistics Using …

In the olden days, when people looked up P values in printed tables, they would report the results of a statistical test as "PPP>0.10", etc. Nowadays, almost all computer statistics programs give the exact P value resulting from a statistical test, such as P=0.029, and that's what you should report in your publications. You will conclude that the results are either significant or they're not significant; they either reject the null hypothesis (if P is below your pre-determined significance level) or don't reject the null hypothesis (if P is above your significance level). But other people will want to know if your results are "strongly" significant (P much less than 0.05), which will give them more confidence in your results than if they were "barely" significant (P=0.043, for example). In addition, other researchers will need the exact P value if they want to combine your results with others into a .

Support or Reject Null Hypothesis in Easy Steps

Even though we can reject H0 at the usual levels of significance, common sense says that the null hypothesis is more likely to be true than the alternative hypothesis.

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