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The words “ level of significance” or

Find the area (given by your alpha level above) from the . An area of .05 is equal to a of 1.645.

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Level of confidence is another name for level of significance.

On , replicators can make whatever anybody wants. That technology may also exist in the GCs’ treasure trove, but I am not specifically aware of it. Almost all that I know and feel comfortable reporting regarding those hoarded technologies are what fellow travelers have described, usually by directly telling me what they witnessed. The next chapter will present a vision in which manipulation on the nuclear level is not a regular practice, although I realize that it could well come to pass if it does not already exist, and that would make the next chapter’s vision potentially even more grand (or perilous). Also, although I have heard rumors of time travel as another sequestered technology, and some have made public claims of their involvement in time-travel experiments, I have not had any close fellow travelers confirm that to me from their direct personal experience, so I will also lay aside that possibility in the next chapter.

This is smaller than our alpha value of .05. That means we should reject the null hypothesis.

The rest of this chapter will trace many important preindustrial developments which helped set the stage for the Industrial Revolution, which is humanity’s fourth and most recent Epochal Event. But until the last few centuries in Europe preceding the Industrial Revolution, the basics among all civilizations did not appreciably change. Agriculture provided a local and stable energy supply that allowed for sedentism, forests were removed to make way for crops, and domestic animals were used to provide labor and/or flesh products, while their manure helped replenish soil nutrients depleted by agriculture. Virtually everywhere that agriculture appeared, so did civilization, with varying levels of urbanity. Elites dominated all civilizations, and they almost always invoked either a divine nature or divine sanction to justify their status, and they always engaged in conspicuous economic consumption. Cities situated on low-energy transportation lanes, which were almost always bodies of water, exploited forested and agricultural hinterlands, which were worked by peasants and slaves, while cities housed professionals and the elite. Forests and agriculture provided the primary energy supply of all preindustrial civilizations, which was usually supplemented with the products and services of domestic animals. All preindustrial civilizations were steeply hierarchical - economically, socially, and politically – and the means of production provided small surpluses that supported a small elite and professional class. Fighting over resources and plunder has been the primary predilection of all civilizations for all time, except for a very brief interlude at the beginnings of .

The descriptive significance level of the test is: a.

Just as precipitation before plants colonized land, denuded lands and , and transpiration no longer contributed to the hydrological cycle. Rampant deforestation contributed to flooded Mesopotamian rivers, and the region also became drier. The flood that survived, which , was probably related to deforestation, although a great deal of speculation exists regarding the origins of flood myths. The , where the rising interglacial global ocean flooded the lake to levels higher than during the glacial period. Another hypothesis has rising seas flooding the lower end of Mesopotamia. There are arguments that the legend of Atlantis related to a seashore civilization drowned under a rising interglacial ocean, but I think that an increasingly deforested Sumerian hinterland gave rise to the floods of legend.

Some nonliterate societies do not engage in warfare. They are a vanishingly small proportion of the world’s native societies, but almost without exception, they are not warlike because they are geographically isolated. The most important variable in predicting a society’s level of internal and external violence is male dominance. Monkeys are (matrilineal), and males leave their society of birth to mate, gorillas and chimps are (patrilineal), where females leave their natal society to mate, and humans have both kinds of pre-state societies, along with some . Patrilocal societies are run by gangs of related men, are by far the most violent, engage in the most warfare, and women are subjected to the most violence. Patrilocal societies can also have harems or many “wives” for the alpha males. Patrilocal societies make up nearly 70% of the world’s native cultures that have been documented. Neanderthals and australopiths . The primary determinant of patrilocal or matrilocal residence in humans is the economic contribution of women. In general, where gathering and horticulture brought in more calories than hunting, women had more influence and the society tended to become matrilocal. Those relationships only hold for societies that are not economically centralized. When surplus redistribution appeared, men began to dominate, and the chiefdom was the first step toward state formation. Organized violence only began increasing as states began to form.

Test at the 0.05 level of significance (ALPHA = .05).

The culture’s killing implements abruptly appeared in the archeological record and disappeared just as fast, after the easily killable megafauna went extinct. Today’s North American megafauna are , not North American megafauna that learned to avoid humans. Bison are the only significant exception, although they came from Asia, too, and explaining their survival remains a minor curiosity, but is about the only circumstance not neatly aligned with the overkill scenario. The “” paper concluded that although the South American extinction was the greatest of all, it is the most poorly investigated and that the overkill hypothesis cannot yet be attached to South American extinctions. That may be a prudent position for a specialist who pronounces judgment only when all the evidence is in, but I will be among the most surprised people on Earth if the pattern of 50 thousand years did not continue there, especially since it had no ice sheets. There can be no more pertinent example than comparing Africa to South America. They inhabited the same latitudes and have similar climates, separated by the Atlantic Ocean. Africa was the home of humanity, where its animals had millions of years to adapt to the human presence, and Africa only lost about 10% of its megafauna (probably to human hunters with their advanced weaponry) while South America lost nearly all of its megafauna, and quickly. Climate change did it? How could it have even contributed?

The Andamans are members of a racial group called , which appear to be remnant populations of the original migration from Africa. They all survived in marginal environments where they subsisted as hunter-gatherers, while later agricultural immigrants dominated arable lands. About 50 kya, a few thousand years before the migration to Australia happened, the sea level was lower and the islands of , , and formed a contiguous peninsula today called . , Australia, and were also connected and formed a continent today called . Deep water lay between those two “lost continents,” and biologists drew lines between them that noted the distribution of animals and plants that did not cross open water. is farthest north, followed by , and is farthest south. Those lines mark the limits of migrations from Sundaland toward Sahul, which followed sea level changes. About 48-46 kya, behaviorally modern humans crossed the water in boats to Sahul, and the peoples of New Guinea, Australia, and Tasmania largely lived in isolation until Europeans arrived. Those peoples have remnants in their DNA, which probably means that they interbred with them while driving them to extinction on Sundaland and Southeast Asia, before some migrated to Sahul. Aboriginal Australian isolation was almost certainly maintained in the way that Andaman Islanders did it: by killing strange peoples who came ashore. However, in 2012, a paper was published regarding evidence of contact about four kya with people probably from India, when the , , and some Indian DNA admixture were introduced into Australia, which seems related to a colonization of northern Australia by an immigrant population. More of those kinds of migrations of human DNA, technology, and domesticated species have yet to be discovered, and some may even be significant.

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  • Level of confidence equals (1 - level of significance).

    But suppose other experimenters also get p-values 0.05. They can’t all be unlucky in theirsamples, can they?

  • Level of confidence = 1 - (level of significance).

    At the 0.05 significance level, does this sample show that theaverage of all cash deposits is different from $200?

  • Level of significance is the probability of Type I error.

    Identify the critical value suitable for conducting a two-tail test of the hypothesis at the 2% level.

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Understanding Hypothesis Tests: Significance Levels …

What heads that list may well be the primary trait that led to UP’s dominance of Earth: their mastery of language. Although social communication via sound may have and perhaps even earlier, and had , and Neanderthals had , scientists strongly suspect that the mastery of language that today’s humans display probably allowed humans to rapidly develop their technology and culture. It was humanity’s first Internet: a way to communicate ideas and information in a way previously unfeasible and even unimaginable, at a level of sophistication that no other land animal ever achieved. That invention provided the opportunity for sharing complex ideas, which created positive feedback loops that allowed for quicker cultural and technological advances. That is not fanciful speculation; linguistics, the study of brain abnormalities, and genetics testing has converged on what seems the most plausible hypothesis today, although in these areas the controversies can be fierce.

What do significance levels and P values mean in hypothesis tests

Those issues will not be resolved in my lifetime, but migrated past Africa in the . There is evidence and speculation that those humans may have bred with Neanderthals, were killed off by them, migrated across Eurasia, or some combination of those events. There is evidence that or Neanderthal descendants, the , also migrated across Eurasia, perhaps expanding to Southeast Asia as did. The Denisovan evidence arose from analyzing DNA from teeth and bones, which is the only physical evidence of Denisovans discovered so far, and their genes are more prevalent in . To summarize, there is substantial evidence that the human line probably populated Eurasia in significant numbers by 200 kya, and perhaps even anatomically modern humans around 100 kya. They could have driven vulnerable species to extinction, with their advanced toolkit and hunting behaviors, long before behaviorally modern humans left Africa about 60-50 kya. became extinct in East Asia or the islands off of it, and the . Those two primates coexisted for more than a million years and disappeared concurrent with the rise of humans with sophisticated toolsets. They may well have been early casualties of humanity’s success.

Hypothesis Testing (Tests of Significance) - Statistica

Did the control of fire to , ? Or did merely use it to begin dominating the world? Was cooking the seminal event in the appearance of humans? Those questions may not be definitively answered in my lifetime, and led to the somewhat uncertain title of this chapter. Highly transformative developments coincided with the appearance and dispersal of , which was a radical break from all that came before – biologically, technically, and culturally – and strongly implies great cognitive enhancements. I believe that the control of fire and cooking would leave deep cultural and biological impacts on the human journey, and because barely changed during its nearly two-million year tenure on Earth, both in biology and in Acheulean artifacts, I favor Wrangham’s hypothesis, at least until the Next Big Finding. Just as Einstein said that and that his theories would one day become obsolete, but that their best parts would survive in the new theories, I suspect that significant aspects of Wrangham’s hypothesis will live on in successor hypotheses, and other scientists have been following Wrangham’s lead.

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