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Unbiased Expectation Hypothesis

unbiased expectation hypothesis

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: In everyday language, the word usually refers to an educated guess — or an idea that we are quite uncertain about. Scientific hypotheses, however, are much more informed than any guess and are usually based on prior experience, scientific background knowledge, preliminary observations, and logic. In addition, hypotheses are often supported by many different lines of evidence — in which case, scientists are more confident in them than they would be in any mere "guess." To further complicate matters, science textbooks frequently misuse the term in a slightly different way. They may ask students to make a about the outcome of an experiment (e.g., table salt will dissolve in water more quickly than rock salt will). This is simply a prediction or a guess (even if a well-informed one) about the outcome of an experiment. Scientific hypotheses, on the other hand, have explanatory power — they are explanations for phenomena. The idea that table salt dissolves faster than rock salt is not very hypothesis-like because it is not very explanatory. A more scientific (i.e., more explanatory) hypothesis might be "The amount of surface area a substance has affects how quickly it can dissolve. More surface area means a faster rate of dissolution." This hypothesis has some explanatory power — it gives us an idea of a particular phenomenon occurs — and it is testable because it generates expectations about what we should observe in different situations. If the hypothesis is accurate, then we'd expect that, for example, sugar processed to a powder should dissolve more quickly than granular sugar. Students could examine rates of dissolution of many different substances in powdered, granular, and pellet form to further test the idea. The statement "Table salt will dissolve in water more quickly than rock salt" is not a hypothesis, but an expectation generated by a hypothesis. Textbooks and science labs can lead to confusions about the difference between a hypothesis and an expectation regarding the outcome of a scientific test. To learn more about scientific hypotheses, visit in our section on how science works.

While the adaptive expectation hypothesis focuses on past events alone, ..

Knowing these things and given my experience with scientific medicine, I can see no reason to consult an acupuncturist for any ailment I might have. I understand, however, why practitioners and patients alike are convinced that the benefits of acupuncture are due to sticking needles into people. I'm not expecting these folks to change their minds about acupuncture on the basis of the evidence, which they will probably interpret differently. After all, there are plenty of opportunities for on both sides of this issue. Skeptics will continue to note any case where acupuncture doesn't help someone or causes harm, and we will continue to identify high caliber studies that support the hypothesis that acupuncture works by conditioning and placebo effects. Believers will continue to point to their successes and to the scientific studies that seem to support their viewpoint, while ignoring or misinterpreting the occasional high-caliber study that is published. Believers have the additional advantage of having on their side popular celebrities like . A single celebrity endorsement carries more weight with many people than a thousand high-caliber scientific studies, especially with people who have a low opinion of scientific medicine. People who have had bad experiences with conventional medicine, or who are believers in the Big Pharma/AMA conspiracy to keep us sick so they can make money, can easily find examples of experiences that support favoring acupuncture or other forms of alternative treatment over scientific medicine. To them I say: I hope all your ailments are minor ones, but if you have a heart attack or a stroke I hope others will make sure you get the best treatment that scientific medicine has to offer.

Difference Between Population and Sample Standard …

31/12/2015 · Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar

These selected explanatory variables are correctly signed in accordance with the priori expectations except national savings with negative sign, indicating that savings is not contributing significantly to growth in Nigeria.

In other words, the simplest correction is to move the cut-off point for the continuous distribution from the observed value of the discrete distribution to midway between that and the next value in the direction of the null hypothesis expectation.

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What Explains Deviations in the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis? Market Irrationality vs. the Peso Problem

As we will see below, when we review the scientific studies that have shown how conditioning affects our response to medical treatment, conditioning can involve much more than obvious factors like getting an injection, taking a pill, or being touched where it hurts. Conditioning can involve the theater of the medical setting and medical rituals, including the medical uniforms worn, medical jargon spoken, and medical gadgetry used. These conditions affect the patient's expectation of relief by the treatment, as does the manner of the healer. Patient expectation, it turns out, plays a significant role in the effectiveness of many kinds of treatment. In short, classical conditioning is "hypothesized to be the primary triggering mechanism for the placebo effect ... which must be learned before it can manifest itself...." (Bausell 2007: 131).

We show how to construct arbitrage-free models of the term structure of interest rates in which various expectations hypotheses can hold. McCulloch (1993) provided a Gaussian non-Markovian example of the unbiased expectations hypothesis (U{EH), thereby contradicting the assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR, 1981) that only the so-called local expectations hypothesis could hold. We generalize that example in three ways: (i) We characterize the U{EH in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a class of expectations hypotheses that includes all of those considered by CIR; and (iii) we construct stationary Markovian and non-Gaussian economies. The building block is a maturity-dependent vector that travels around a circle at a constant speed as maturity increases.

Interest rate futures : evidence on forecast power, expected premiums, and the unbiased expectations hypothesis
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One basic theory of the term structure of interest rates is that short-term and long-term interest rates are linked by the expectations hypothesis. This is best expressed using the one-year interest rate RS and the two-year interest rate RL. If RS*t+1 is agents' expectation of next year's short-term interest rate then the expected return to one-year (rolled over) and two-year investments will be equal if

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: In everyday language, generally refers to something that a fortune teller makes about the future. In science, the term generally means "what we would expect to happen or what we would expect to observe if this idea were accurate." Sometimes, these scientific predictions have nothing at all to do with the future. For example, scientists have hypothesized that a huge asteroid struck the Earth 4.5 billion years ago, flinging off debris that formed the moon. If this idea were true, we would that the moon today would have a similar composition to that of the Earth's crust 4.5 billion years ago — a prediction which does seem to be accurate. This hypothesis deals with the deep history of our solar system and yet it involves predictions — in the scientific sense of the word. Ironically, scientific predictions often have to do with past events. In this website, we've tried to reduce confusion by using the words and instead of and . To learn more, visit in our section on the core of science.

Cognitive Effects of Advertising Repetition by Andrew …

People who do meta-analyses of small studies in hopes of turning lead into gold attract the journalist more interested in a good story than the truth. Well, I guess we can just say that such studies attract journalists, since in the area of medical reporting the concern for the truth doesn't seem to be as important as . For example, in the article following the headline posted above about acupuncture, surgery, and painkillers, the author concludes: "The National Institutes of Health says that acupuncture has also been shown to reduce nausea after chemotherapy and surgery." The article made no mention of a news report published a few weeks earlier on the Linköping study that found acupuncture did no better than sham acupuncture to reduce nausea after chemotherapy. When both true and sham acupuncture groups respond positively in studies at about the same level, the data support the placebo hypothesis. Such data are consistent with the hypothesis that traditional acupoints are irrelevant and so is the actual insertion of needles. This fact seems lost on many journalists and defenders of acupuncture.

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The test for homogeneity, on the other hand, is designed to test the null hypothesis that two or more , according to some criterion of classification applied to the samples.

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