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We refer to this forecast as the “New Seismic Gap” hypothesis, ..

Gap Hypothesis: What are Seismic Gaps

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The seismic gap method is a frequently used application of this concept for long-term earthquake forecasting and the identification of seismic potential. Along many simple plate boundaries, like the San Andreas Fault, most of the long-term plate motion occurs during infrequent large and great earthquakes. As originally proposed by Kelleher et al. (1973), sections of active plate boundaries that have not been the site of large or damaging earthquakes for more than 30 years are considered the likely site for future events. This approach was successfully applied for several large (Mw >7.5) earthquakes along subduction zones and strike-slip plate boundaries during the 1960s and 1970s (Fedotov, 1965; Mogi, 1968; Kelleher et al., 1973). Application of this method for events with Mw

seismic gap - USGS Earthquake Hazard Program

It is argued that half the earthquakes that Kagan andJackson used to test the seismic gap hypothesis do not correspond to theselection criteria of McCann et al.

Seismic gap hypothesis/theory ..

A seismic gap is a section of a fault that has produced earthquakes in the past but is now quiet

An earthquake prediction hypothesis is much more useful, and much more testable, if probabilities are attached to each region. Let the probabilities for each region be labeled pj, for j=1 through P. For simplicity, I will henceforth consider the case in which a prediction for any region is terminated if it succeeds, so that the only possibility for each region is a failure (no qualifying earthquake) or a success (one or more qualifying earthquakes). In this case, several different statistical tests are available. Kagan and Jackson () discuss three of them, applying them to the seismic gap theory of Nishenko (). Papadimitriou and Papazachos () give another example of a long-term prediction with regional probabilities attached.

For earthquakes equal to or larger than the characteristic magnitude, the new seismic gap hypothesis failed at the 95 % confidence level in both the number and ratio tests.

Mind the (Seismic) Gap | Future Historic

10/03/1995 · New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after

We refer to this forecast as the “New Seismic Gap” hypothesis, because it is the first global forecast based on the seismic gap hypothesis that considers the recurrence time and characteristic earthquake magnitude specific to each plate boundary segment.

27/04/2011 · Mind the (Seismic) Gap
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